Editor’s note: The following is an edited version of a letter sent by Charles Colby, president of Rockbridge Associates, a Great Falls, Va., research firm, to clients shortly after the terrorist attacks on September 11.

To all our Clients and Colleagues:

Like all Americans, we at Rockbridge are deeply moved and disturbed by the events of September 11. We hope that you have not been personally affected, and that your friends, family and coworkers are safe. For those of you who have personally lost family or friends in the attack on America, our hearts and prayers go out to you.

Shortly after the attacks, President Bush told the country that the best thing Americans could do right now is “go back to work.” In that spirit, I am writing this letter to discuss the ramifications of the September 11 events on marketing decision-making and market research. We are already facing short-term disruptions, including an adverse impact on surveying and travel. We are also likely to face consequences that are longer term, such as a change in consumer values, a shift in how business is conducted, and the possibility of having to live with military and economic uncertainty over a period of months and years.

The following paragraphs cover: how our clients are responding to events; observations from other crisis situations in the past 20+ years; and suggestions for how you can act.

Short-term ramifications

  • Impact on interviewing. The most immediate effect of the attack on America for the market research profession is a disruption in surveying. In the days immediately following the attack, there was a strong feeling in the marketing community that any kind of direct solicitation, including surveys, would be insensitive.

With the agreement of our clients, Rockbridge decided to reschedule virtually all studies that were due to be in the field during the week of the attacks. We have been and will continue to be sensitive and flexible in scheduling. Going forward, researchers and marketers will need to be sensitive to whom we are surveying, where they are located, the timing of when we contact them, what the topic of the research is, and how we approach respondents. Our research directors will discuss individual situations with clients and colleagues to make the best decisions possible as events unfold.

We recommend that new dates be arranged as quickly as possible when interviewing is rescheduled. Despite the fact that interviewing volumes in the industry have been lower than last year, there may be bottlenecks in telephone centers because schedule changes are so widespread.

  • Dealing with the “history effect.” From a survey validity standpoint, there is the worry that events of historic proportions will skew responses to any surveys or polling conducted too close in time to those events. While opinions may be temporarily skewed by historic events, it has been our experience that commercial market research results are more immediately affected by events directly related to the company, product, or industry that is the subject of the research rather than to world events generally. Unless in an affected industry (say, an airline), we recommend that clients press on with research, and not bring marketing and research programs grinding to a halt in the face of momentous events. In deciding whether to delay research because of a possible history effect, we recommend greater attention to external factors directly related to your company or industry than to the broader effect of recent events.
  • Impact on travel. We face a temporary disruption in travel (or at the very least increased inconvenience of travel), which may affect your ability to conduct qualitative research such as focus groups. As a general principle, I feel we should all attempt to travel, both to support this vital part of our economy - the hotel, air, and meetings industry - and as part of our mission to “go back to work.” We may actually find business travel to be more affordable and comfortable than anticipated because of excess capacity.

In a situation where travel is not desirable, or where adequate travel options are not available, there are research approaches that can be used without sacrificing qualitative research as a vital tool for listening to customers. Qualitative research may be particularly important in a volatile world where attitudes and behaviors may be rapidly changing in fundamental ways. There are some proven options to traveling out of town which you might consider (see sidebar).

Long-range ramifications

The recent events are significant enough to cause major changes that marketers and researchers need to take into account. The events are akin to Pearl Harbor or the economic collapse in the 1930s. It can be argued that all such pivotal events create a shared experience among a generation that leads to a dramatic shift in beliefs (for an interesting source on how history effects generational cohorts, read the book Generations, which is reviewed on our Web site, www.rockresearch.com). Consequently, I think there are three major issues that we will face in the years to come: changes in values, changes in how consumers conduct business, and economic uncertainty.

  • Changes in values. I remember conducting a study among youth in the midst of the Iran hostage crisis and being surprised to find a strong patriotic attitude. Those familiar with the mood of the decade before the hostage crisis, the 1970s, will know that this reflected a very sudden and dramatic shift in opinion driven by the news. The momentous events of 2001 will have a far greater impact than other crises of recent memory on how consumers and businesses think and behave.

Wise marketers will want to stay in touch with their customers and learn how they have changed. Customers will have different expectations and will bond with different kinds of companies than in the past. We cannot say for sure what these changes will be (that’s why we conduct research), but we can speculate. In the 1990s, there was a tendency for companies to cultivate an “edge” in their image - there was a benefit to being seen as innovative, independent, and a bit rebellious. In the new world, customers may seek stability - they may look to organizations that position themselves as being strong and cooperative. The coming decade may be filled with events that change what consumers need and expect, and it is important to learn what these needs are and respond to them.

The implication is that marketers should not stop listening. It is important to engage customers in a dialogue through research in order to learn what to say and do to help customers, reassure them, and survive financially.

Management will also want to know what has happened in the past, and how this learning might be applied to the future. For example, a colleague in a company that relies on sophisticated models for predicting consumer response indicated that the models lost their validity after the attacks as consumers suddenly behaved differently than they would in “normal” times. One way to address this problem is to tap data archives. More fortunate companies will have longitudinal survey databases that go back over a decade or more. Marketers can also look at non-survey internal databases, and syndicated sources of information on consumer behavior. Consumer behavior benchmarks to examine would include reactions to events such as the World Trade Center bombing in 1993, the Gulf War in 1991 and the stock market crash in 1987.

  • A shift to e-services. We predict that a number of factors may accelerate the shift to online models of doing business. Even before September 11, we have observed that despite a slowdown in household penetration of computers and Internet access, e-services have continued to grow. Consumers and businesses are going online to purchase small items (e.g., tickets to events) and big-ticket items such as durables, to subscribe and unsubscribe services, to pay bills, to gather account information, and to communicate with governments and associations.

In the future, consumers may limit their visits to public places such as malls. We may also see a return of fuel shortages as we did in the face of oil embargoes in the 1970s. Economic factors may also propel services providers to speed up their e-commerce initiatives in order to lower costs. Companies who already have stable e-service platforms in place may institute programs to promote their use more widely among customers. Decisions to make will include who to target, what message to use, how to design systems that make customers feel in control, and how to price and bundle e-service options.

In planning for next year’s budget, it would be wise to dedicate dollars for market research, promotion, and development in these areas. Market research initiatives on e-service typically include qualitative research to test service site elements, usability testing, customer satisfaction tracking (e-quality), and communications research focused on lowering barriers of resistance to online commerce. This is also the time to join think-tanks that help organizations with their e-service initiatives, such as the newly formed Center for e-Services at the University of Maryland.

  • Economic uncertainty. We cannot predict what will happen in the economy, but we are concerned that uncertainty will result in budget cuts that affect the marketing function. Prior to the crisis, certain sectors such as technology, lodging, and advertising were already experiencing downturns. Economic uncertainty will exacerbate problems for certain sectors such as airlines and insurance, and there are likely to be ripple effects that will impact all of us.

To my colleagues in marketing and research functions, I suggest that now is the time to demonstrate value and to accomplish more with limited resources. Here are a few specific suggestions:

  • Leverage existing data sources - conduct new analyses on old databases for fresh learning and deeper insight about your business. For example, a past positioning study can be turned into a market segmentation analysis that aids in more targeted communications. The possibilities for added-value analysis are limitless, and usually involve some advanced data modeling; the databases can include one-time surveys, tracking studies and syndicated studies that you have rights to using. (You should be aware that you usually have the right to request datasets from suppliers so long as identifying information is removed.) Not only do you provide new information for clients, but also you show the value of past research.
  • Commission studies that help management save money - an important question will be: where can we cut back on our products and services without seriously affecting customer satisfaction? Special studies, often involving trade-off methodologies (e.g., conjoint designs), can help answer this question.
  • Conduct customer surveys via the Web - more of our survey work has shifted from telephone, mail, and malls to the Web. Such surveys usually involve an e-mail invitation with a link to a survey Web site. This method can prove very economical when surveying customers who are prone to cooperate.
  • Engage clients in a discussion about their needs - I directed a research function for a banking concern during a major downturn and found it more important than ever to meet with each of my internal clients to discuss their information needs. I achieved newfound respect for my department, while being able to fine-tune my program to help them spend marketing dollars more efficiently.

As a final comment, I want to let you know that Rockbridge is ready to stand behind all of our clients as a partner in what may be challenging times ahead. I invite you to contact me personally (I am at extension 12) and any Rockbridge staff to discuss solutions to problems that arise.

God bless America!