Phone surveys skewed by cell-only homeowners
According to government statistics released in a recent Pew research study, 12.8 percent of U.S. households cannot now be reached by the typical telephone survey because they have only a cell phone and no landline telephone. Twenty years ago the survey research profession worried mostly about the roughly 7 percent of U.S. households that could not be interviewed because they had no telephone.
If people who can only be reached by cell phone were just like those with landlines, their absence from surveys would not create a problem for polling. But cell-only adults are very different.
The National Health Interview Survey found them to be much younger, more likely to be African-American or Hispanic, less likely to be married and less likely to be a homeowner than adults with landline telephones. These demographic characteristics are correlated with a wide range of social and political behaviors.
In early 2003, just 3.2 percent of households were cell-only. By the fall of 2004, pollsters and journalists were openly worrying about the potential bias that cell-only households might create for political surveys. The National Election Pool’s exit poll found that 7.1 percent of those who voted on Election Day had only a cell phone, and these cell-only voters were somewhat more Democratic and liberal than those who said they had a landline telephone.
Given the speed with which the number of cell-only households has increased, there is growing concern within the polling business about how long the landline telephone survey will remain a viable data collection tool, at least by itself. At the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, a government researcher told the audience that the size of the cell-only group could approach 25 percent by the end of 2008 if the current rate of increase is sustained.
The Pew Research Center conducted four studies that included samples of cell phone numbers as well as landline numbers. The surveys covered a wide range of topics, including use of technology, media consumption, political and social attitudes and electoral engagement. Comparing the cell-only respondents with those reached on landlines allowed an assessment of the degree to which traditional surveys are biased by the absence of the cell-only respondents.
The good news, says the report, is that none of the measures would change by more than 2 percentage points when the cell-only respondents were blended into the landline sample and weighted according to U.S. Census parameters on basic demographic characteristics.
However, while the cell-only problem is currently not biasing polls based on the entire population, it may very well be damaging estimates for certain subgroups in which the use of only a cell phone is more common. According to the most recent government estimate, more than 25 percent of those under age 30 use only a cell phone. An analysis of young people ages 18-25 in one of the Pew polls found that the exclusion of the cell-only respondents resulted in significantly lower estimates of this age group’s approval of alcohol consumption and marijuana use.
Perhaps, says the report, excluding the cell-only respondents also yields lower estimates of technological sophistication. For example, the overall estimate for the proportion of 18-25-year-olds using social networking sites is 57 percent when the cell-only sample is blended with the landline sample, while the estimate based only on the landline sample is 50 percent.
Including a cell-only sample with a traditional landline-based poll is feasible, but cell-only surveys are considerably more difficult and expensive to conduct than landline surveys.
Federal law prohibits the use of automated dialing devices when calling cell phones, so each number in the cell phone sample must be dialed manually.
It also is common practice to provide respondents with a small monetary incentive to offset the cost of the airtime used during the interview.
The screening necessary to reach cell-only respondents among all of those reached on a cell phone greatly increases the effort needed to complete a given number of interviews.
Pew estimates that interviewing a cell-only respondent costs approximately four to five times as much as a landline respondent.
Pollsters recognize that some type of accommodation for the cell-only population will have to be made eventually. For more information visit http://pewresearch.org.
Our cookie deletion skills are crumbling
Results from a study on cookie deletion suggest that great misperceptions about cookies continue to drive online behavior, although a smaller proportion of individuals are adept at cookie deletion. The research, by Stamford, Conn., firm InsightExpress, replicated a study conducted in the spring of 2005.
The results indicate that individuals who choose to delete cookies for one or more reasons possibly misunderstand the roles and functions served by cookie technology. The most common reasons for deleting cookies in 2007 closely match those seen in 2005, with freeing memory at the top of the list, followed by protecting privacy, increasing computer speed and removing spyware. Of these top four reasons, only privacy would be considered a cookie-related issue, although it is one that continues to be debated within the industry.
Surprisingly, despite a greater willingness on the part of 2007 respondents to participate in the survey’s test of their cookie deletion skills, a significantly higher proportion of respondents failed to delete their cookies in 2007 than in 2005. In 2005, 59 percent of respondents believed they deleted their cookies, with 35 percent truly successful. In 2007, 63 percent believed they deleted their cookies, but only 28 percent actually did so.
Although cookie awareness has increased, there has been little movement in their perceived importance. Knowledge of cookies is even more common in 2007 than it was just two years ago. Today, approximately 85 percent of respondents claim they know what cookies are, up from 77 percent in 2005. Yet today, as in 2005, only one-third of consumers consider cookies important when using the Internet; over 15 percent are not sure how they would characterize the importance of cookies.
Overall, the research underscores a need for education on the topic of cookies and cookie deletion. Consumers may not understand the function of cookies as a measurement tool, or connect cookies with some of the features that add convenience and power to common Web capabilities. “The reason some consumers don’t understand the positive benefits of cookies is because the benefits are passive in nature, and trumped by reasonable privacy concerns,” says Tom Willerer, IP media director at media agency Starcom USA. “A possible solution to proper cookie deletion management is to allow consumers more knowledge and control over their information, and by digital companies being more transparent regarding the information being collected and its intended use.”
“This study should serve as a wake-up call to both agencies and advertisers,” says Rick Corteville, executive director, media at Organic Inc., a San Francisco marketing agency. “As knowledge of cookies continues to increase, marketers need to showcase why having their cookie on a potential/existing customer’s machine is important or needed. Personalization features, community-building and tailored creative messaging are just some of the elements which need to be utilized at a higher rate moving forward. As users who delete their cookies tend to delete all their cookies rather than individual ones, it is crucial to show the benefit of cookies on user experience.”
InsightExpress fielded a behavioral survey and a perception survey to online respondents in both 2005 and 2007. The sample sizes for the behavioral survey were: 2005 n=780; 2007 n=1,642. The sample sizes for the perception survey were: 2005 n=300; 2007 n=1,009. Both 2005 surveys were fielded in April of 2005, while both 2007 were surveys fielded between mid-March and early May of 2007. The 2007 data were weighted to match the gender and age distribution of the 2005 data to rule these demographic variables out as potential competing explanations for changes from year to year. The 2005 survey data have a margin of error of +/-3.5 percent and +/-5.7 percent, respectively, assuming a 95 percent confidence interval. The 2007 survey data have a margin of error of +/-2.4 and +/-3.1, respectively, assuming a 95 percent confidence interval. For more information visit www.insightexpress.com.
Women more affected by rising gas prices
Rising gas costs remain a controversial issue all across the United States and the impact is felt by many adults. Eight in 10 U.S. adults say they have made changes to their lifestyles due to rising gas costs, with nearly six in 10 minimizing non-critical travel, 40 percent adjusting their spending habits and 32 percent putting a hold on leisure road-trip travel.
Females are more likely to have made changes to their lifestyle due to the rising cost of gas (84 percent vs. 75 percent for men) and are more likely to have minimized non-critical travel (61 percent vs. 56 percent) and adjusted their spending habits (44 percent vs. 37 percent). Older adults (those ages 45 to 54 and 55 and over) are more likely to have minimized non-critical travel (65 percent and 64 percent respectively vs. 50 percent of those 18 to 34). Younger respondents (ages 18 to 34) are more likely to have driven further to find cheaper gas (15 percent vs. 9 percent for 55 and over) and participated in a car pool (13 percent vs. 5 percent for 55 and over).
These are just some of the results of an online survey of 2,057 U.S. adults ages 18 and over conducted by Harris Interactive, Rochester, N.Y., between June 19 and 21, 2007 for the Wall Street Journal Online.
The vast majority of adults (94 percent) believe it is important to reduce the energy consumption from automobile use. Nearly eight out of 10 consider it important to encourage the development and use of alternative fuels and almost three-quarters believe it is important to increase the fuel efficiency standards on all vehicles. Women are more likely to consider it important to reduce consumption from automobile use (96 percent vs. 91 percent for men), develop communities that are more conducive to walking/biking (45 percent vs. 31 percent), encourage car pooling (47 percent vs. 37 percent) or the development/use of alternative fuels (82 percent vs. 75 percent) and increase fuel efficiency standards (76 percent vs. 69 percent).
Respondents ages 35 to 44 are most likely to consider it important to develop and use alternative fuels (83 percent), while those 18 to 34 are least likely (73 percent) to say this or even to consider it important to increase fuel efficiency standards on vehicles (69 percent). This could be due to a fear that the cost of automobiles will rise as the costs of conserving energy are passed on.
Among those who intend to purchase or lease a new vehicle, 49 percent would consider a hybrid vehicle. Respondents ages 18 to 34 who also intend to purchase/lease are significantly more likely (31 percent) to consider a gasoline-fueled vehicle than older respondents 45 to 54 and 55 and over (24 percent and 25 percent, respectively). Respondents in the lowest income group, less than $35,000, and in the highest income group, more than $75,000, all of whom are planning to purchase/lease, are less likely to consider a gas-fueled vehicle (21 percent and 25 percent respectively) compared to respondents who earn $35,000-$49,900 (34 percent).
Female respondents are more likely to believe the government has a responsibility to engage in energy conservation. In particular, over nine in 10 females believe the government should encourage greater fuel efficiency (compared to 84 percent of males) and 83 percent of females believe the government should mandate higher fuel standards (compared to 75 percent of males).
Harris Interactive conducted online research within the United States between June 19 to 21, 2007 among 2,057 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. For more information visit www.harrisinteractive.com.
Game advertising will top $2 billion by 2012
Game advertising spending in the U.S. will grow from $370 million in 2006 to more than $2 billion in 2012, according to Electronic Gaming in the Digital Home: Game Advertising, a new report from Dallas research firm Parks Associates. Over that time, game advertising will achieve a compound annual growth rate of 33 percent, much higher than that of other major advertising media, including TV, radio, print and the Internet.
“Advertising in electronic games had an average monthly household expenditure of less than 50 cents in 2006, while broadcast TV was at $37, meaning advertisers are not using the gaming medium to its full potential,” says Yuanzhe (Michael) Cai, director of broadband and gaming, Parks Associates. “If executed correctly, game advertising can provide a win-win solution for advertisers, developers and publishers, console manufacturers, game portals and gamers.”
In-game advertising will experience the highest growth rate among the various categories of game advertising methods forecasted, increasing from $55 million in 2006 to more than $800 million in 2012. Specifically, dynamic in-game advertising (DIGA) in PC, console, mobile and casual games will grow from 27 percent of the in-game advertising market in 2006 to 84 percent in 2012.
“DIGA offers several unique advantages, such as timeliness, scalability, measurability and flexibility,” says Cai. “But the industry will also have to address several looming challenges, including lack of economy, lack of industry standards and media fragmentation.” For more information visit www.parksassociates.com.
Top sites engage viewers, encourage return visits
A new Web site benchmarking offering, the Accenture Web Evaluator, has identified five business-to-consumer (B2C) Web sites as delivering the best brand experience to consumers. The five top sites out of more than 260 evaluated by Accenture Marketing Sciences are nike.com, ford.com, google.com, adidas.com and microsoft.com.
The top sites were successful at engaging consumers using a variety of techniques, such as providing detailed, high-quality information in interesting formats; building relationships through interactive exchanges; and encouraging return visits by current and potential customers through the use of promotions, premium services, clubs and other online innovations. At the same time, Accenture found that many B2C sites fall far short of reaching their full potential to build consumer relationships while supporting branding efforts and product sales.
“By benchmarking the key components among the world’s most influential business Web sites, we were able to identify the characteristics that encouraged or discouraged a positive brand experience,” says Jeffrey Merrihue, CEO of New York-based Accenture Marketing Sciences. “Our findings indicate that companies can get a greater return from their marketing and brand investments by improving the functionality and impact of their Web sites by adding important information and relevant services, creating engaging features to build relationships and improving the retail and e-commerce linkages.”
The Accenture Web Evaluator scores a site on nine factors: search and navigation; information; service; engagement; relationship-building; branding; e-commerce; globalization; and number of visitors.
The Nike site scored particularly high in the areas of engagement, relationship-building and branding, as it delivered instant impact with tight integration with its offline marketing activity and other elements to engage the targeted customers and make it relevant to their daily lives. For instance, Accenture noted that Nike, by using its site to market Nike+ and NikeID, incorporated innovative mechanisms that enable consumers to measure and manage their running regime and even design their own sports shoe.
Google.com was rated as particularly strong in the area of relationship building, as the simplicity of the site’s design enables a consumer to set up his or her Google account and return to a home page that is tailored to deliver the information that he or she wants to access on a regular basis. Repeat Google users can readily register to gain access to a variety of services ranging from maps and video to blogs, images and news.
Ford’s U.S. site received high marks because of its depth of product information, which the Accenture Web Evaluator rated as detailed, helpful and well-presented. For instance, people who use the Ford site can enter its virtual showroom, where they can access detailed product information that is interactive and easy to use and can also locate dealers, search dealer inventory and learn about financing options.
Microsoft.com provides online services that create customer “stickiness” and deliver value to the customer. The site encourages visitors to return to download software, access user guides and tutorials and obtain other product information.
Accenture Web Evaluator gave the Adidas site high marks for branding, noting that from the moment a user arrives at the Adidas landing page, the site delivers a high-impact positive brand experience with a “wow” factor. That impression is sustained throughout the site, as its design, function and layout support the company’s “Impossible is Nothing” messaging with animation, images of star athletes and other design elements that support the slogan and the brand while providing visitors with information about the company and its products. For more information visit www.accenture.com.
Most see mobile ads as not relevant
Four in five consumers who watch mobile video say they are willing to view mobile advertising if the reward is free content. But less than 30 percent feel that mobile ads are relevant to them. These are among the findings from How People Use Mobile Video 2007, a new report from Menlo Park, Calif.-based Knowledge Networks/SRI.
Expanding upon its predecessor in 2006, How People Use Mobile Video 2007 details mobile video usage and interest among those with video iPods, video-capable cell phones and laptop computers, making distinctions between those who actually use mobile video functions and those who do not. The report also offers trends for 2006 versus 2007; for example, use of iPods and cell phones to view video has doubled in the past year.
“Advertisers wisely have entered the mobile video space in a big way; but so far many seem to have missed the chance to leverage the unique qualities of mobile video, such as intimacy and immediacy,” says David Tice, vice president and managing director of Knowledge Networks/SRI. “While mobile can indeed be part of larger campaigns, we need to recognize its differences, as well as the ways that different target groups use the medium.”
The report shows that mobile video users see little or no difference between mobile video advertising and ads on regular television, in terms of either personal relevance or contextual integration with the content. And, not surprisingly, most of these consumers say that mobile video ads are no more influential for them than those on traditional TV.
The new report also indicates that the proportion of users paying for mobile video dropped notably in the past year among both video iPod users (from 81 percent to 61 percent) and among video cell phone users (from 64 percent to 50 percent).
The average viewing session is quite different for video cell phones (46 percent of users report an average session of 5 minutes or less) compared with video iPods or laptops (53 percent of these users report an average session of 30 minutes or more).
Viewing of movies has risen dramatically among those who use the video functions on iPods (from 1 percent to 54 percent) and laptops (2 percent to 34 percent). For more information visit www.knowledgenetworks.com.