A bit of Tomorrowland today

Editor's note: William M. Bailey, Ph.D., president of WMB & Associates, Orlando, Fla., is a statistical consultant and market analyst.

As the home of Walt Disney World, Orlando, Fla., has no trouble attracting tourists. But if all goes as planned, A vacationers may have yet another reason to visit the central Florida recreation mecca. A proposed mode of transportation known as a maglev is in the planning stages by the Federal Department of Transportation (FDOT), in conjunction with local governments and private industry.

Maglev is an elevated magnetic levitation train that can travel at speeds over 250 m.p.h. There are several demonstration projects planned across the U. S., including one in Orlando. Approval and completion of the Orlando project would produce the first commercially operated train of this type in the world. Maglev Transit, Inc. (MTI), Orlando, received the certificate for Florida's demonstration project using German maglev technology.

The proposed maglev would run between the Orlando International Airport and International Drive, a central point for tourists gathering outside Walt Disney World. From International Drive, tourists are within three to 15 minutes driving time from hotels along International Drive, at Walt Disney World, Lake Buena Vista, and along U.S. 192 in Kissimmee, Fla.

By rental car or taxi, it typically takes 30 to 45 minutes to cover the 13.5 miles from the airport to International Drive. Via maglev, the trip would be cut to six-and-a-half to seven minutes.

Maglev Transit, Inc. engaged the author to design a study that would measure consumer and travel agent opinion toward the proposed mode of high speed transportation. Armed with this information, ridership estimates could be determined based on various fare scenarios and an optimum fare provided to the financial plan being developed for the FDOT, the Florida Department of Transportation and MTI's investor group. In addition to MTI, the research steering committee included representatives from FDOT, Transrapid (the German maglev train design and engineering team), C-Itoh USA (a Japanese consortium), and Amtrak.

This article is the consolidation of a two-part study that integrates qualitative and quantitative research techniques. The first section of the article presents the design and results of the qualitative phase; the latter section highlights the results of the quantitative phase.

Measure appeal

The study sought to understand consumer reaction to the maglev concept, its appeal as an alternate mode of ground transportation, its allure as an attraction, and the level of fare sensitivity of potential riders. From travel agents, the study sought attitudes toward incorporating maglev as a transportation portion of tour packages.

The study objectives of the qualitative phase included:

  • Measuring the level of expectations of the system, including wait time between trains and the viability of having an "attraction center" promoting the maglev at the airport.
  • Insight into the sensitivity of automatic baggage transfer from the inbound airline to the hotel and its impact on maglev ridership decisions.
  • An indication of fare boundaries for the trade-off analysis in the quantitative phase and discussion of question design.
  • From travel agents, input regarding maglev's "salability" and how it might be incorporated into travel packages.
  • Appropriate strategies for product introduction.

PHASE ONE
Qualitative research traditionally precedes more detailed analytical methods for a variety of reasons. Some researchers use a focus group setting for brainstorming; many use its relaxed environment to obtain consumer opinion on particular products and services. Today, researchers are beginning to integrate quantitative methods into the qualitative arena, testing future survey designs and ultimately helping to formulate studies that provide more informed decision making.

Focus groups for the maglev project involved both automobile and air travelers who frequented central Florida for vacation purposes. There also were sessions with travel agents who book a lot of trips to the area.

Participant selection criteria included travel to the Orlando area with quotas involving travel patterns, family type (with and without children), household income and gender. Sessions were held with three types of consumers: those who travel to Orlando by plane, those who travel by car, and "snow birds," those who live elsewhere but maintain a home in Florida, spending four to six months of the year there.

All eight focus group sessions (Figure 1) integrated surveys to supplement the basic qualitative effort. After viewing a short concept video, participants responded to an initial reaction survey. Another survey, with subsequent discussion, at the end of each session obtained more in-depth data on usability and several trade-off question designs, one of which would be used in phase two of the project.

FIGURE 1
Focus Group Sites
Consumer Sessions

Atlanta
Garden City, NY
Toronto
Chicago
Columbus, MO

Travel Agent Sessions

Orlando
Garden City, NY
Chicago

The sessions were organized as follows:

  • A pre-session survey collected information related to travel planning, the booking of reservations and the importance of various attributes in deciding on the mode of transportation used to go from the airport to the hotel.
  • A nine-minute video of interior and exterior footage of the German maglev prototype developed for demonstration purposes by Transrapid.
  • Each participant completed a "concept reaction" survey to obtain top of mind impressions, attitudes and pricing opinions.

This phase also involved several one-on-one interviews with significant travel wholesalers who bundle and resell travel packages to travel agencies. These interviews were conducted similarly to the focus groups.

Positive reaction

There was strong positive reaction from consumers and those in the travel industry to the development of a high speed train system such as maglev. The written "concept reaction" survey reinforced opinions respondents expressed verbally during the groups. In open discussion in all sessions, respondents used words like neat, great, fun, exciting, good-looking, comfortable, futuristic, safe, and cool to describe their impressions. The train's technology, speed, energy efficiency and environmental friendliness were attributes that had important appeal to the participants, though "high speed" unnerved some.

Maglev was viewed more as another mode of transportation than as an attraction. As an attraction, the ride's short duration could limit the number of repeat trips.

Participants naturally based their ideas of an acceptable fare on their experiences with other modes of inter-city transportation. Even so, certain incentives could elevate the actual fare charged.

Ease of personal and baggage transfer were found to be critical to the success of a system of this type. Transfer from airline arrival gates and/or airport baggage areas to the train's terminal must be convenient and speedy to offset plans to take an alternate mode of transportation - taxi, shuttle bus or rental car. Baggage transfer must be seamless.

Respondents said that the maglev's airport terminal should be comfortable, similar to an airline's. Having a small information and/or technology display would be appropriate. First time users would be interested in the anticipation of the upcoming trip. It also would entice walk-on traffic.

An on-board video of the technology was the least important attribute according to the reaction survey.

However, during the discussion, positive comments were made about this feature, e.g., an educational exhibit while riding.

Maglev Transit immediately used the focus group information to begin design and development of its marketing plan. The findings were also used extensively in preparing for meetings with other parties that had a vested interest in the rail system: The City of Orlando, the Orlando International Airport, the International Drive Business Association, and several local communities and neighborhood associations.

PHASE TWO
Phase two of the study used a paired trade-off approach to learn consumer opinion toward several competing modes of transportation and evaluate the price sensitivity between each. Specifically, this phase helped evaluate the trade-offs consumers would make between the maglev and an alternative mode of transportation.

Conjoint analysis is widely recognized as a way to query respondents for opinion toward a product, service or a bundling of both. In a conjoint exercise, consumers make the same type of choices they make when shopping. They weigh product features and attributes, making trade-offs on their way to picking the product that best meets their needs and wants. This information facilitates optimum product and pricing design and more informed decision making.

The primary purpose of the tradeoff phase was to obtain a direct comparison between alternate modes of transportation, including maglev, from the airport. This phase also was designed to better understand some of the opinions derived from the focus groups.

Specifically, the objectives included:

  • Comparison of competing modes of transportation from the airport based on travel time, drop-off convenience and cost.
  • Obtaining consumer opinion of the sensitivity of automatic baggage transfer from the inbound airline to the hotel and its impact on ridership decisions.
  • Measuring the train's appeal as a tourist attraction.
  • Obtaining data on consumer travel patterns.
  • Obtaining basic demographic, geographic and psychographic information on the respondent.

This phase used conjoint methodology and involved personal interviews with travelers at the Orlando International Airport. The questionnaire used a series of questions based on a paired trade-off between two transportation options (see Figure 2). The layout was based on a factorial design having four factors of three to four levels each. Fare is an example of a factor that has up to four levels.

FIGURE 2 Paired Comparison - Preference Scale
Strongly Prefer Mode A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Strongly Prefer Mode B

Several Likert scale questions were positioned between introductory travel related questions and respondent demographics. The scale ranged from 1, which denoted strong preference toward transport mode A, to 9, which indicated a strong preference for mode B. Each respondent was shown three transportation pairs. Four combinations of tradeoff pairs were then randomly distributed across the airport and rotated by day parts (morning, midday and evening hours).

At an appropriate time during the interview, the respondent was shown a characteristics grid (Figure 3 at bottom) displaying information about each transportation mode. As can be seen, an attempt was made to provide the respondent with an unbiased set of features for each mode.

The study's result is based on 400 completed interviews, 100 per pair combination set. Quotas were set for both inbound and outbound respondent type, and the final dataset was weighted to overcome disparities. The data were also adjusted for the seasonal variation between vacation and business traffic.

Beyond basic descriptive statistics, the study used the Student's t test to identify significant differences about the Likert scale centroid. The conjoint methodology identified a favorable fare structure and its elasticity. Factorial analysis was used to discern if clustering existed among variables such as: reason for being in Orlando, method of transportation to/from the hotel, attitude toward automatic baggage transfer, likelihood of taking an advanced technology transport, attitude toward the maglev train as an attraction, and select demographics. Regression analysis also was helpful in understanding the relationship among variables.

The airport intercept research developed the ridership preference/likelihood grid (Fig. 4). The grid resulted from a series of crosstabulations using the set of trade-off questions and an "educated" ridership opinion question asked at the end of the survey.

FIGURE 4 Preference/Likelihood Grid
$21 Fare $16 Fare $12 Fare
Combination
Strong & Very Likely 12% 17% 20%
Moderate & Very Likely 9% 8% 9%
Neutral & Very Likely 1% 3% 1%

Based on the data illustrated in the grid, 12 percent of respondents indicated that they had a strong preference for maglev compared to the alternative mode presented at a $21 fare, and they were very likely to take the maglev train, regardless of fare. Moreover, 20 percent had a strong preference at a $12 fare and were very likely to use the train. Well over half (59 percent) had a neutral to strong preference for maglev, and were at least somewhat likely to use it from the airport to International Drive.

The study's data then was used as input for two models that provided ridership estimates. The first, a trend & cycle model, was based on analysis of linear and cyclical times series at various lag times. This model used historic airport statistics to project inbound traffic (domestic and international) through the year 2000. The second model was for actual ridership. The ridership model combined elements of the preference/ likelihood grid and the trend & cycle projections to estimate market size then ridership at various fare levels for several points in time.

Strong advantage

The study's results coincided very closely to the qualitative research. Both were conclusive: The maglev concept has merit and usability. Based on this research, a maglev train has strong competitive advantage against its main competition, the rental car. When taking into account the upper fare limit (from the fare elasticity findings), its position remains especially strong if there is seamless transfer of baggage from the airport to the visitor's hotel.

Information from this research formed an integral part of ridership projections, financial structuring and strategic transportation planning.

Postscript: During 1994 (about six months after completion of this research phase) Maglev Transit changed technology from that based on Germany's Transrapid to Japan's HSST system.

The change resulted in a speed reduction from the approximate 250 m.p.h. used in the intercept study to 125 m.p.h. Even so, actual travel time from the airport to International Drive increased no more than three minutes. However, the technology change did affect certification and the maglev train's project implementation. At the time the article was written, the review and approval process was still underway.