Editor's note: David Leach is vice president and west coast representative of SRG International, a New York City-based firm that specializes in conducting research outside the U.S.
In mid-1989 SRG International Ltd. established a relationship with the Institute for Comparative Social Research Ltd. (CESSI), a survey research organization based in Moscow. CESSI provides local support for Oxnard, Calif.-based SRG's annual Eastern European omnibus study and manages custom research projects for SRG in Russia and the other former Soviet republics. CESSI also conducts social and economic surveys for various Russian news media and institutions.
This relationship has provided SRG with data from some of the more recent CESSI surveys. When combined with the findings from SRG International's most recent omnibus study (November/December 1992), it paints a revealing picture of what life is like in Russia these days.
For the vast majority, life now is much harder than it was five years ago. For many, the future does not appear to be much brighter. When omnibus survey respondents rated their level of "personal life satisfaction" at the present time the average rating was just under four on a 10-point scale. (Ten was highest, one the lowest.) This compares with an average rating of nearly six when asked the same question five years ago. Asked to look five years down the road, respondents didn't see much, if any, improvement - the average rating held at about four.
It comes as no surprise that the chief worry is the economy. More than half the respondents stated "general economic problems" and high prices as the most important problems facing Russia today. There are a substantial number of supporters for the move to a market-driven economy, but little confidence the current government can make it happen. And while nearly half approve of the move to a free market system, just about as many disapprove, about a quarter of them strongly.
A CESSI survey conducted in November 1992, however, provides insight that offsets this gloomy picture. While the hyperinflation situation has created hardship for many, the society overall has not been brought to its knees. One in five persons reported having enough money to buy everything they needed; three-quarters said they denied themselves things they wanted in order to get by. Fewer than one in 10 said they didn't have enough money to buy food.
In this same survey more than 80 percent felt the government's economic reforms either have not yet produced results or, worse yet, have had a negative impact. While generally in favor of the privatization of business, agriculture and housing (about half to three-quarters of the respondents, depending on the segment), only a minority (34 percent) approve of price liberalization, a policy that appears to have reached deep into the pockets of nearly every Russian citizen.
No simple answers
There are, of course, no simple answers. When presented with a list of specific steps the government could take to improve the economic situation, four in 10 chose "work out a clear program of social and economic reforms," while five in 10 picked "stimulate production and not resale of goods." And four in 10 picked "actively fight corruption among bureaucrats," signaling frustration with government efforts to manage reform.
Despite the hardships and lack of measurable results, there are many who continue to support the social, economic and political reform programs. In the CESSI survey a significantly greater percentage disagreed with the statement "a market economy is not for us" (48 percent versus 37 percent), six in 10 agreed that "democracy is the best form of government," and a majority disagreed with the statement "The (old) social system should be restored." Many, however, are not willing to embrace capitalism as the sole answer to Russia's problems; more than 70 percent disagreed with the statement "only capitalism can save Russia."
Results from the SRG omnibus study tend to provide supporting evidence that not everyone is in favor of a free-for-all economy. Four in 10 thought those who start privately owned businesses should have the amount of their profits limited by the government. And about three times as many respondents favored a more controlled, Swedish-style economy, rather than one modeled on the United States or Japan.
Little confidence in government
Most of the citizenry realizes, however, that the current government cannot be counted on to develop and manage the reform programs, and if their economic lot is to be improved, in the end it will be they who make it happen. The CESSI study found that 84 percent of those interviewed had little or no confidence that the current government had the capacity to govern during this difficult transition period and 65 percent said outright that this current government would not succeed. President Boris Yeltsin's activities were rated at least satisfactory by nine out of 10 of those interviewed, but 70 percent were not sure that he was capable of solving the important problems.
With a now-dead centralized system and a government in which the people have little faith, many seem to have realized that the only way to improve their lot in life is to rely on their own industry and enterprise, and support from their families: nearly 75 percent picked these items from a list of 10. On the other hand, two-thirds felt they had no possibilities for improving their material status.
Business echoes public
A June 1992 CESSI survey of more than 900 top business managers echoed the general public's feelings. Nearly all the business people interviewed supported the move toward a market economy, with more than half favoring a gradual, controlled transition rather than a radical, speedy change. Two out of three felt a market economy would lead society out of its current crisis and into prosperity, and a like number thought the job would get done by the year 2000. Feelings about the government's handling of the transition, however, were not as positive. Four in 10 approved of the main points of the overall program, but thought the details needed to be worked out, while another 40 percent said there was no program at all. About half supported the current economic program, but just as many did not, citing the cost to the people as the main reason. The price liberalization program is viewed as an important step in the transition process, but 66 percent of businesspeople realize that by allowing prices to seek their own level, particularly in a country where goods are in short supply and the distribution system is in shambles, poses a great risk.
The businessmen's attitudes toward privatization were also positive, on balance, but many thought there were deficiencies in government policy. Most of their complaints centered on the lack of a well thought-out plan, a lack they blamed on a rush to implement any sort of plan. About nine in 10 favored consulting Western experts, but the majority felt their own Russian experts should not be ignored.
Seeking views on broader economic issues, the CESSI survey found that the main economic problem in Russia today, as seen by these business managers, is the slump in economic output. Many suggestions were made to improve productivity. The most frequently mentioned was encouraging the development of new businesses, cutting taxes and attracting Western capital.
Does the country currently have the management firepower to get the job done? Many think not. This is a country that not long ago relied solely on the centralized system to manage the economy, where there were few incentives to increase productivity. (A popular joke went, "The government pretends to pay us, and we pretend to work.") With that kind of history, managers feel ill-prepared for the new vision. These business people rated themselves on the low end of the scale for resourcefulness, necessary skills and taking responsibility. Topping the list of negative qualities was thinking short-term rather than long-term, and a majority saw themselves as inferior to Western businessmen. However, taking a longer view, few disagreed that Russia possessed the human, technological and natural resources to eventually get the job done.
So from all of this can we look into the crystal ball and picture Russia five or 10 years from now? What seems to be the case is that there is a broad support for the "rightness" of the reform programs, and an underlying will of the people to endure the hardships until measurable results begin to be realized. What is lacking, however, is confidence in the government to lead society out of its current crisis, a situation that is unlikely to change until the remaining old guard cease their fight to return to the old system, and let a new government move forward with social and economic reforms.
In the end, however, it's the people's action that is the key to the program's success. Little businesses springing up on every street corner are positive signs of classical capitalism at work, and proof that when the going gets tough, the tough get going. Russia no doubt will make it down the road to prosperity - it's just that for many, at this point the road is full of rocks and potholes.