Editor’s note: Chris Hauck is owner, HauckEye, a Longmont, Colo.-based research firm.
In May, I wrote an article on how I have to pivot my business do to the COVID-19 pandemic, which made me realize just how many others will be pivoting. This made me realize how interconnected we all are.
Our old normal was fine for many. If you had work you enjoyed and financial security, life was pretty good. You traveled for fun, you ate, you played, you had a safe home and, for many, you didn’t fear for your life when you went out. Sure, there was occasional outrage, but very little incentive to change.
I believe our society will see more significant change the longer this pandemic affects us.
Political
Consider how much is done to operate our communities. Mayors, governors and city council people are elected to make sure tax money is allocated to community members’ priorities. Good governance will be critical in cleaning up the mess left behind. Your local government doesn’t print money like the federal government does, so much work will be needed to restore our local and state governments. In this new age, people are going to pay a lot more attention to politics. We are likely to demand more, participate more and expect more.
Health care
Our health care system was stressed prior to the pandemic. Structured as millions of disconnected profit centers, the quick decisions needed in a pandemic were not easily made. Many people in the U.S. will be looking at the way of delivering health care here, digging into what is causing consistently poorer outcomes as well as what we can learn from the more than 30 industrialized nations with different structures and pricing. The pandemic stress is blaringly exposing our systemic inefficiencies.
Travel
I was always quick to visit a prospect and conduct groups or IDIs. Those days are on hold for a while, for me and for my fellow road warriors. Not because road warriors don’t want to travel, but because people don’t want to meet in person or participate in focus groups. As you think about the spider web that is travel, you realize so many businesses are impacted. Not just me, but all of the companies that support my trip, Travelocity, Hotels.com, Hertz and the hotels that I stay in, the restaurants that I eat in and the bars that I have a drink in after the groups. I also attended the occasional conference with speakers, venues, catering and more. With fewer buyers for airline seats, ticket prices will increase, availability will be much less and the services provided once you arrive may no longer be open. You may be getting used to Zoom meetings, but they don’t generate much income for the economy.
Retail
In-person retail was on edge before the pandemic. Since, several large brands have declared bankruptcy. More will follow. While we might describe this as the inevitable change towards a more efficient consumerism, remember that online retail produces many fewer jobs. When J.C. Penney closes store locations, retail employees are no longer earning money that they use to buy things, which will close more stores. With empty retail space, tax income will be reduced for local communities. A great shift in how people buy things is imminent. Online retailers may seem great in many ways, that model is not be sustainable for local economies.
Restaurants
Restaurants make money during good times, but margins are too low to survive at reduced capacity or with just take-out. Their many suppliers, from marketing researchers and ad agencies to food distributors, are struggling as well. A ground beef supplier must find a way to sell thousands of pounds of their product no longer needed at restaurants. These suppliers are not in the grocery supply chain, so they can’t make a quick pivot. Fifty-pound sacks of restaurant grade flour are sitting in warehouses, while the grocery stores can’t get five-pound bags on the shelves. They will all have to pivot.
Entertainment
Stay-at-home entertainment is really taking off. Some of the last businesses to reopen will be those in which people gather inside. Live anything will struggle to come back until there is a successful protocol for caring for those with the coronavirus or a vaccine. I am reminded of a movie called “Idiocracy” in which the people of the future mostly sit at home watching television.
Supply chains
Possibly the greatest impact will be on the supply chain. Over the past 40 years, we have moved the majority of our production overseas. We are now dependent on factories in Asia for our goods. This was highlighted when we urgently needed ventilators but did not make them. Even if the factories produce goods, getting them to market has been disrupted, so there will be shortages. Americans may find that a new paradigm, driven by our most recent experiences, will allow us to pay a little more to buy products made in the U.S.
Quick changes
This pandemic is a tremendous stressor, pushing our society forward to make quick changes. These changes will require many businesses to pivot from their pre-coronavirus standard to a new post-coronavirus reality. Those of us who are not in essential businesses will have to pivot to become relevant again.