Editor’s note: Olivier Tilleuil is founder and CEO, EyeSee Research, New York. This is an edited version of a post that originally appeared under the title, “Conducting research in times of crisis.”


One of the most pressing questions in the minds of marketers today is, is it worth conducting research given the current consumer sentiment? Our recent study shows that among consumers, uncertainty about the future and the impact the pandemic will have on their lives is high (around 60%). So how do we continue to learn and understand consumers in these trying times?

Projections about the health crisis predict a “back to the new normal” situation followed by a recession, so it is highly likely that the impact on consumer sentiment will stabilize in roughly six to 18 months. Stopping research for months on end does not seem like a particularly good option, especially in such a changing landscape.

Therefore, the key question is not if but how to obtain reliable insights in a time of crisis. In addition to adjusting your current approach, there are new types of research that could prove useful in the upcoming period.

Should you pause research and marketing activities?

Let’s imagine a hypothetical case: a $500 million brand that planned on revamping its package design to look more sustainable. The new design was expected to launch in 12 months and, by doing so, increase its sales by 7.5%.

In the current situation, brand VPs and decision makers face two options:

  • Option one: Keep up with the planned research and 12-month launch timeline.
  • Option two: Postpone the entire schedule for six months. 

If they go for postponing all their activities for six months, the company can face potential losses of up to 18.75 million by forgoing the sales of the product and the additional 7.5% revenue boost expected after 12 months. 

Effectively, postponing such investments for after the crisis only makes the crisis last longer.

The current concern is consumer sentiment

Consumer sentiment can indeed influence decisions and options, but different people are bound to react differently in the crisis. According to our study, 17% of consumers are optimistic, around 24% are pessimistic and about 60% are uncertain about the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and their personal financial outlook. These numbers will undoubtedly change over time as the situation develops (and perhaps are already outdated, after a week). It’s a no-brainer that the sentiment is different now than it was six months ago, but the million-dollar question is what it will be like in six-to-18 months when the crisis wears off. We could probably distinguish a different sentiment in three points in time: now, before and after the crisis.

Consumer confidence dropped after 9/11 and stayed the same for four years. After the 2008 crisis, it took seven years to get back on the same level. Confidence amidst the crisis was closer to the confidence in the period afterward than to what it was before.

Source: Trading Economics

Whatever happens in the coming months, we can already suppose that the sentiment will be worse than six months ago for at least two years – and probably closer to seven. 

To summarize, the sentiment will probably stay low in the next 18 months. Making predictions about complex systems is always difficult or impossible, but this scenario is a safer bet than a magical rebound in six months. This is the first real crisis that Millennials and the Generation X are experiencing – a fight against an invisible enemy.

Analyzing data during the crisis

I believe there are two fundamental guiding principles to help you navigate decision-making during these complicated times:

  • Conduct various scenario analyses based on three different sentiments.
  • Accept the use of working assumptions during the turbulence, and modify them over time.

Hopefully, we will start a fruitful discussion in the market research community and come up with many more solutions aside from these.

Solution 1: Scenario analysis and splits

As I mentioned earlier, we have three segments of current sentiment: (A) very worried, (B) concerned and (C) little or not worried. The split-scenario approach would entail analyzing each group separately and making conclusions for each group. You do this by overrecruiting for your studies and adding a sentiment-based split.

Most probably, a part of the sample will go back to normal again, and a part of people will stay anxious for a while – so we will end up with a “new normal” consumer sentiment somewhere between groups B and C in the next 12-18 months. Nevertheless, group A can provide us with interesting information as well (not necessary for decision-making), as they are representing an outlier attitude. If findings from all three groups align in the end, then your decision is easy.

The figure below shows a concrete example of three new package designs: 

In Scenario 1, the winning design in all three groups is Design 1, so whatever happens, Design 1 is a good choice.

In Scenario 2, the winning design is Design 1 for group B and C, but Design 2 for group A. If we presume groups B or C are our future consumers, Design 1 is still a good choice. Here, it might be interesting to check the insights from group A and see whether the data sparks some new ideas or space for improvement.

In Scenario 3, there are three different winners. This suggests you should rethink the design or strategy as neither solution is able to keep up performance in a changing environment – and the only sure thing about the future is a lot of change. Our solutions need to be robust enough to survive in such circumstances.

Solution 2: Monitor results over time

Another (and complementary) approach would be to conduct the study now and use the results as a working hypothesis. Then, confirm the results again in three-to-six months.

The reality is that this crisis will not be solved in the next two-to-three months. Companies can hold up for three-to-six months, but putting off fresh insights from research entails opportunity costs as well. It could result in a delayed revenue and profit in one-to-two years – which is not good either.

What can we do to confirm our view? Try to understand the impact and precision of current studies by comparing it with previous studies.

The best decision you can make at the moment is with the info you have available now. 

However, the situations and insights can change very quickly – it makes sense to monitor them over time. Use the concept of working assumptions and track your conclusions over time to see if the new info fits with the bigger picture. If necessary, later, you can modify your decision based on newly available info.

A  tool for decision makers 

In times like these, consumer research should be a real tool in the hands of decision makers – something they rely on to stay atop the waves and not only a fine-tuning device when everything is running smoothly. Getting timely feedback from your customers by using remote testing, with either of these two approaches in mind, can help you prepare for jumping headfirst into work when we manage to surmount the difficult challenges ahead of us.